We identify gaps in the AI safety ecosystem, surface high-leverage funding opportunities, and develop the next generation of informed grant-makers.
Projected AI investment over the next decade requiring thoughtful philanthropic oversight
Active funders currently engaged in dedicated AI safety grant-making globally
The critical window to build robust philanthropic infrastructure before the field scales
We operate at the intersection of strategic philanthropy and AI safety, focused on building durable capacity for the field.
We map the AI safety funding landscape, identify structural gaps, and publish research on where philanthropic capital can have the highest counterfactual impact. Our gap analysis covers major funders, underserved research areas, and missing infrastructure.
Read Gap AnalysisWe develop concrete proposals for initiatives, organizations, and programs that should exist in the AI safety ecosystem but currently do not — and we actively advocate for their creation with funders and field leaders.
View ProposalsWe connect individuals transitioning into grant-making with experienced mentors, and work to grow the pool of informed, mission-aligned donors in AI safety. We are proposing a dedicated fellowship stream through MATS for aspiring AI safety funders.
Get InvolvedThe name reflects our core question: what would happen if this initiative, this organization, or this dollar did not exist? We focus on the delta — funding and building things that would not otherwise come into being.
AI safety faces a pivotal moment. Resources are growing rapidly, but the philanthropic infrastructure needed to deploy them well is not keeping pace. Counterfactual Capital exists to close that gap.
We are not a grant-making organization. We are a catalyst: identifying what should exist, making the case for it, and connecting the people and capital needed to bring it to life.
Whether you are an experienced grant-maker, a researcher, or someone looking to transition into AI safety philanthropy — we want to hear from you.